LUCAS M NOVAES
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Working papers and Work in Progress
The Violence of Law and Order Politics: The Case of Law Enforcement Candidates in Brazil 
(Conditionally accepted, American Political Science Review) 
Media: blog faces da violência, época, ponte, vice

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Media Manipulation in Young Democracies: Evidence from the 1989 Brazilian Presidential Election 
(Accepted,  Comparative Political Studies ) 
(with Alexsandros Cavgias, Raphael Corbi, and Luis Meloni)

​The Religious Advantage: External Mobilization and the Success of Church-Backed Parties
(with Melani Cammett and Guadalupe Tuñon)

The autocracy bandwagon: political selection and autocratic consolidation
(with Guadalupe Tuñon) - EPSA 2022; APSA 2022; REPAL 2023 (scheduled)

Can political outsiders break the patronage equilibrium? Evidence from local elections in Brazil

(with Jorge Ikawa)

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Modular Parties: making clientelism work in volatile systems

The exit trap: the gender gap in political perseverance
(with Guadalupe Tuñon) 
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Peer-Reviewed Publications

2022 - Commodity Shocks and Incumbency Effects​ - British Journal of Political Science, 52(4), 1689-1708.(with Luis Schiumerini)

2018 - "Disloyal Brokers and Weak Parties" - American Journal of Political Science 62.1

2010 - "The effect of re-election on health expenditures: an analysis of the reputation-building model".   Brazilian Review of Political Economy (Revista de Economia Política) - v. 30, p. 140-158. (with Enlinson Mattos, and in Portuguese)

2009 - "Scale economies in the supply of health services: a study of São Paulo Municipalities". Revista ANPEC, v. 10, p. 357-386. (with Paulo Arvate, Enlinson Mattos, Veronica Orellano, and Fabiana Rocha)


Chapters in Edited Volumes

2021 - The new left in broker-mediated party systems (with Thad Dunning)
in Kapiszewski, Levitsky and Yashar (eds.) The Inclusionary Turn in Latin American Democracies, Cambridge University Press


Non Peer-Reviewed

2021 - COMUNICANDO INCERTEZAS (with Pedro Burgos)
in Machado, Laura Mueller (org.) Legado de uma Pandemia. Autografia.
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2010 - MEXICO CENTENNIAL: LIMITED INDEPENDENCE, LIMITED DEMOCRACY
(with Sinaia Urrusti-Frenk)
Berkeley Review of Latin American Studies



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