LUCAS M NOVAES
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Working papers and Work in Progress
(Revised and resubmitted, American Political Science Review) The Violence of Law and Order Politics: The Case of Law Enforcement Candidates in Brazil
Media: blog faces da violência, época, ponte, vice
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(submitted) ​The Religious Advantage: External Mobilization and the Success of Church-Backed Parties
(with Melani Cammett and Guadalupe Tuñon)
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(invited to revise and resubmit, Comparative Political Studies) Media Manipulation in Young Democracies: Evidence from the 1989 Brazilian Presidential Election
(with Alexsandros Cavgias, Raphael Corbi, and Luis Meloni)


Can political outsiders break the patronage equilibrium? Evidence from local elections in Brazil
(with Jorge Ikawa)
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The autocracy bandwagon: political selection and autocratic consolidation
(with Guadalupe Tuñon) - EPSA 2022 (scheduled); APSA 2022 (scheduled)
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The exit trap: the gender gap in political perseverance
(with Guadalupe Tuñon) ​
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Unionization and Political Preferences: Evidence from Brazil
(with Andrés Schipani) ​
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Modular Parties: making clientelism work in volatile systems

Peer-Reviewed Publications

2021 - Commodity Shocks and Incumbency Effects​ - forthcoming, British Journal of Political Science (with Luis Schiumerini)

2018 - "Disloyal Brokers and Weak Parties" - American Journal of Political Science 62.1

2010 - "The effect of re-election on health expenditures: an analysis of the reputation-building model".   Brazilian Review of Political Economy (Revista de Economia Política) - v. 30, p. 140-158. (with Enlinson Mattos, and in Portuguese)

2009 - "Scale economies in the supply of health services: a study of São Paulo Municipalities". Revista ANPEC, v. 10, p. 357-386. (with Paulo Arvate, Enlinson Mattos, Veronica Orellano, and Fabiana Rocha)


Chapters in Edited Volumes

2021 - The new left in broker-mediated party systems (with Thad Dunning)
in Kapiszewski, Levitsky and Yashar (eds.) The Inclusionary Turn in Latin American Democracies, Cambridge University Press


Non Peer-Reviewed

2021 - COMUNICANDO INCERTEZAS (with Pedro Burgos)
in Machado, Laura Mueller (org.) Legado de uma Pandemia. Autografia.

2018 - DECEPÇÃO À VISTA
Revista Época, 22 de março 2018
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2010 - MEXICO CENTENNIAL: LIMITED INDEPENDENCE, LIMITED DEMOCRACY
(with Sinaia Urrusti-Frenk)
Berkeley Review of Latin American Studies



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